Can Latinos Save Hillary Clinton From Obama Wave?
February 4th, 2008, 9:59 am · 6 Comments · posted by Joaquin
Hillary Clinton’s lead in California is evaporating by the day, with her once mighty edge in the kingpin of states in tomorrow’s Super Tuesday vote now down to a statistical dead heat with Barack Obama.
Just a week ago, Clinton was leading Obama by double figures in just about every reputable poll. Now, one of those polls, a Zogby-Reuters-C Span poll, has Obama up by six points, and tomorrow’s vote can’t come soon enough for Clinton.
With just about every age and voting group trending Obama’s way, Clinton does have one group her campaign is desperately hoping can save her in California. It’s Latino voters, which make up about a quarter of that state’s electorate, and it amounts to Hillary’s firewall in California, along with older white women. Obama appears to be swamping Clinton just about everywhere else.
For reasons I don’t entirely understand, other than Clinton and her husband are Democratic Party icons, the Clintons have historically enjoyed a wide swath of popularity with Hispanics, especially Mexican-Americans. But, really, what special affinity does Hillary Clinton have for Hispanics? It’s just another group of voters she can pretend to like so she can rule over them. The glow of support Hillary has felt from Hispanics is nearly all emanating from the popularity of her husband, Bill, with Latinos.
If Hillary pulls off a narrow win in California over Obama in tomorrow’s voting, it will likely be Latinos that carry her over the finish line. For months, national polls have shown Clinton with a two-to-one edge over Obama among Hispanics, but the challenger and his campaign are now actively campaigning in California Latino communities and neighborhoods, racking up some big endorsements from leaders in that community which may prove helpful. And then, on Saturday, La Opinion, the largest Spanish daily in Los Angeles, endorsed Obama, even though the newspaper has historically stayed neutral in primaries.
As it did in South Carolina, the Clinton campaign and some of its surrogates are playing the race card in California, suggesting that Latinos have historically not supported African-American candidates, (i.e. Obama in this case). This is the way The American Prospect put it recently in an online article: “Hillary Clinton pollster Sergio Bendixen, an expert on the Latino electorate, made headlines during the run-up to the Nevada (caucus) vote when he suggested Obama’s deficit could be attributed to Latino antipathy toward African-Americans.”
Is that true or is it simply the matter of Hispanics being more familiar with the Clinton name brand in the Democratic Party? If there is a slice of truth to supposed hostilities between blacks and Hispanics in urban areas like LA, Clinton and her campaign are working to exploit it, as she did during the Demo’s most recent debate when Hillary said she could understand why some African-Americans are frustrated by immigrants supposedly taking jobs from blacks in some job sectors.
Obama flatly rejected that notion in the debate, saying losses in the black community started long before more immigrants came to the U.S., adding that more recent immigrants were being used as scapegoats by some in this country who have economic worries.
Here’s what will happen after Tuesday’s big votes in California and over 20 other states. The next big prizes will be primary votes in Texas and Ohio in early March, meaning get ready to see the Barack and Hillary show in the Rio Grande Valley and other parts of the state which are key to the Democratic primary vote.
Texas in its history has never had a high-profile African-American candidate. So, will voters in the predominately Democratic and Hispanic Rio Grande Valley give Obama a look, or have Demos in this area long ago drank the Clinton Kool-Aid, and will support Hill and Bill no matter what?
With the closeness of the Obama-Clinton race we’ll find out. The Si Se Puede line is sure to get a good workout in the weeks ahead.
February 4th, 2008 at 3:36 pm
Joaquin — Conversely, what affinity does Barack Obama have with Mexican Americans? In answer to your question, the Clintons have a relationship with Latinos that is positive.
February 4th, 2008 at 3:50 pm
Joaquin, you are definitely showing your age. Were the 90s so long ago for you? I wouldn’t really call support for Hillary as drinking the Kool-Aid as you put it. However, I would call it various factors. First, Hillary Clinton has an established relationship with Hispanics. Bill Clinton appointed more Hispanics; i.e,, Mexican Americans to his Cabinet than any other President in history. Second, all of his policies from education, to the economy even to immigration clearly give the Clintons a lead over Obama. Most Hispanics were just recently introduced to Obama — I am a teacher and community activist, and I have NEVER seen him around doing anything for my community. Lastly, I think Hispanics are intelligent and sophisticated enough to make their own decisions about the Clintons. If there is any kind of gap, it is obviously not a black-brown one as much as it is a generational one. As someone who is Obama’s age, I really don’t think I am old; however, I am wise and experienced enough to be selective with my candidates. Fluffy speeches are fine, but where is Obama on substantive issues? His issues are sorely lacking.
Also, Obama is in support of BUILDING A FENCE ON THE BORDER. I have friends in Chicago who will attest to that position of his that gets no exposure. His voting record will clearly affirm that is the case. Joaquin–as a Mex/Am woman, I also feel that the rights of women and children and education will be more at the forefront with Hillary. Also, I think she has a better grasp of the Economy and foreign affairs. Obama just doesn’t have the experience as freshman Senator with only 2 years in the Senate.
Joaquin– I realize that you may be caught up in the emotions of the Obama campaign, but when the dust settles, I will vote for a foundation based on experience and history over a total unknown’s anytime — Kool-Aid or not.
February 4th, 2008 at 8:04 pm
I agree with Gina. Barack Obama seems to be someone that is so new, fresh and mysterious. I think that our country is yearning new, and fresh after the horrid leadership of our current president. It also seems that our major network journalists are addicted to tabloid and find overly covering Obama as something that is new and newsworthy. What do we really know about Obama? I believe that we know enough about the Clintons. We have seem them in action. I think that the hispanic majority vote will be in Clinton’s favor.
February 5th, 2008 at 8:47 am
I agree, Obama doesn’t have a chance with the Mexican-American vote in the Valley. Every person I talk to down here, across all educational lines and professions, has the same distrust of Obama. “I just don’t trust him,” and “There’s just something about him that makes me uneasy.” It’s mind boggling to me, because my gut instinct is that Obama is trustworthy. He’s less political than Hil’ to be certain, and maybe that’s because he has been in the game for a much shorter time, but nonetheless he’s easier to believe. Clinton won’t lie to you, but she’s a seasoned politician and a lawyer, everything she says (you better believe) is calculated to be technically true. But, what is technically true and what the general population understands from her words are vastly different (re-listen to her defend her Iraq vote and you will know exactly what I mean). I like Clinton, I really do. But I cannot understand the Obama distrust down here for the life of me. Maybe it is just because Mexican-Americans of the Valley are familiar with the Clintons, and Obama is a newcomer. But, I think there might be some racial undercurrents to this seemingly widespread distrust of Obama.
We don’t have racial tension down here between blacks and hispanics, probably because it is impossible since there are no blacks. But, it seems to me as an observer that the people down here distrust Obama because he is black nonetheless. Maybe this is because he is mysterious, or maybe it is because of the stereotypes of black people we see in the media (movies, entertainment, etc.) are the main contact Valley hispanics have with black people. And, those stereotypes would scare me too, if that’s all I knew.
It remains a mystery, but Obama can’t win the Valley hispanic vote. He doesn’t have a chance.
February 5th, 2008 at 9:13 am
Good post, Monica, I appreciate you writing in. If I’m not mistaken, Hillary also voted for the border fence bill, as did Obama, of which I’m disappointed in both. As far as the good times of the 1990s, we’re in the 21st Century and I thought this election was about Hillary and not Bill.
It’s a different era, a different decade with different issues. There’s nothing to say approaches tried in the 1990s will work now, or for that matter, that this nation wants a co-presidency.
I believe there’s more meat on Obama’s bones in regards to his policy ideas, (which differ little overall from Hillary’s), if one looks and reads all of the political reporting and information on the web. I read a piece online from a NY Times columnist over the weekend in which Obama went into a good amount of detail on his economic philosophies. If one is a staunch Democrat, they are both excellent candidates from that perspective. I’d be in the camp that Obama is more electable given all of the baggage Bill and Hillary carry around.
All the national polls to this point show Obama doing better against McCain than Hllary would do.
February 10th, 2008 at 10:02 am
I’ve got an idea! Since we need a president that will be ready to go on day one, Clinton is the obvious choice. Let’s elect her to serve two terms; then, Obama can have his turn afterwards! Keep the Democrats in office for the sake of our prosperity, safety, and future generations.