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Archive for February 19th, 2008

Latest Polls, Delegate Rules Trouble Hillary In Texas

Tuesday, February 19th, 2008 by Joaquin

Hillary Clinton’s Texas firewall isn’t crumbling yet, but it may be showing some signs of wear-and-tear.

A CNN poll released Monday showed Clinton with a mere two-point percentage lead, (50%-48%), over Barack Obama. Other Texas polls are showing Clinton with a bigger lead, but still in single digits. The first polls out last week showed Clinton with leads of 15 to 20 percent over Obama, so the fresher polls showing a much leaner margin are troubling in Hillaryland with the Texas primary still two weeks away.

Obama hasn’t even shown up in Texas yet, and he’s already cutting into Clinton’s lead. History shows during this campaign season that the more time Obama spends in a state via personal visits, the higher his numbers climb. At least for now, Obama seems to be wearing well, while Hillary fades enough in the homestretch to now be 0-for-8 in the lastest round of voting around the country, (Virginia, Maryland, Washington state, Louisiana, etc.).

Wisconsin comes up today, (Tuesday), and Clinton is hanging close in the polls. It would be huge for her to pull off a Wisconsin win, giving her great momentum heading into March 4 votes in Texas and Ohio. She needs every bit of the big Mo that she can get. And she needs the Rio Grande Valley vote in a major way, which explains a return visit to the Valley this week after rallying the troops in McAllen a week ago.

Wednesday will be Valley day for the Clinton campaign, with stops scheduled in McAllen, Edinburg, and in Brownsville, where she will speak at UT-Brownsville. Obama is expected in our area by month’s end, so it all makes for exciting political news for those into such things. But for all of the hub-bub about Clinton’s support among Hispanics in South Texas, a Washington Post story pointed out yesterday, (Monday), “that convoluted delegate rules in Texas could water down the impact of strong support for her” in our region.

What worries the Clinton types is that even if their candidate does really well in targeted districts, “such as Democratic state Sen. Juan Hinojosa’s heavily Hispanic district in the Rio Grande Valley, Clinton could win an overwhelming majority of votes but gain only a small edge in delegates,” the Post story reports.

This is inside baseball stuff, but the Texas primary will be decided in two parts. One will be based on the popular vote and the other half to be determined by caucuses to be held on election night after the polls closed. Bottom-line, even if Clinton racks up significant vote totals over Obama in South Texas, it may not translate into a sweep of delegates, which Hillary badly needs since she trails Prince Barack by over 100 in pledged delegates thus far.

Oh well, at least we get the drama of visits by high-profile presidential candidates. It has been quite a while since we’ve been treated to such entertainment.

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