Barack Glides Over South Texas As Older Pols Grimace
February 22nd, 2008, 10:42 am · 6 Comments · posted by Joaquin
Sitting a mere foot or two away from the eloquent challenger who has eclipsed her, Hillary Clinton reached back to her travels of the week to push forward policy points about health care and immigration.
Just the evening before her Austin debate with Barack Obama, Clinton made an impassioned plea for her candidacy at a boisterous Wednesday night rally at the University of Texas at Brownsville/Texas Southmost College. At the Austin debate, Clinton first spoke of a woman at the UT-Brownsville rally who had “pulled me aside” to speak of struggles to find adequate health care coverage. A few minutes later, she spoke of the lunacy of the federal government’s original border fence plan that would have put a portion of the UTB/TSC campus on the “Mexican” side of the fence.
It’s heady stuff for a mid-size U.S. community when a major presidential candidate mentions the city’s name twice in a nationally broadcast presidential debate. In fighting to keep her presidential bid alive, Clinton has made the South Texas rounds over the last week, with two stops in McAllen, one visit each to Brownsville, Robstown and then San Antonio, and then on to Laredo the morning of her Thursday debate with Obama. It is telling that other than traveling to Austin for the debate, Clinton has not ventured beyond South Texas in her Lone Star political travels leading up to the March 4 primary.
She surely knows that her struggling presidential bid depends heavily these days on a huge amount of support from Mexican-American voters in South Texas. Clinton’s husband, Bill, the former president, said this week while campaigning in Beaumont that his wife must win Texas on March 4, or face the likely inevitably of losing to Obama. It won’t happen for the Clintons without a strong South Texas showing.
But for all of the vaunted Clinton familiarity with the Rio Grande Valley and South Texas, how much of this vote will she actually get? Lots of it, to be sure, but not as much as was once thought, or so it seems to me. It would appear that the same sort of generational divide that has hurt Clinton nationally will take root here. Younger Mexican-Americans, say those between 18 and 35, are going to go for Obama in a major way. They have none of the historical ties and affections to the Clintons that hold sway with their elders. For younger South Texans, Bill Clinton is a guy who was president during their grade school and middle school years. Barack Obama is the now, a voice speaking to them.
“My wife and I support Hillary,” said Juan Ruiz, a retired 58-year-old firefighter who attended one of the Hillary rallies in McAllen. “But our kids are for Obama.”
Ruiz made those comments to the Chicago Tribune, one of the various national media species that has discovered the Valley and South Texas in search of the exotic Mexican-Americans they’ve heard so much about. One fact unearthed in all of the reporting is this: 40 percent of this state’s 8.5 million Hispanics are of the ages 18 to 40. In that Tribune article, one of the Valley’s Democratic Party gray beards, Juan Maldonado, the current Hidalgo County Demo chairman, spoke of days gone by.
“We are guilty to some degree in assuming that because the leadership leans one way, the rank-and-file are going to follow,” said Maldonado, whose roots in politics go back to the La Raza Unida days of the 1960s when young Mexican-Americans of his generation were making their mark in Texas politics. “But the old patron system where the boss would tell everyone how to vote, that’s gone.
“It’s obvious,” Maldonado went on to say, “that Obama is real attractive with a lot of the younger generation.”
So, for all of the breathless reporting on local TV about how all of the local Valley political officialdom is backing Hillary, here’s a simple push back: Who really cares? Surely, not the younger generation Maldonado speaks of. Congress people like Ruben Hinojosa and Solomon Ortiz and the local political types of their 50-plus age range are just talking to themselves when they yell on their microphones for Hillary.
On Friday morning, when Obama made his first Valley visit, bounding on stage at an outdoor rally at UT-Pan American in Edinburg, the kids went nuts. They got more than a glimpse of the future. Barack Obama represents the first wave of the sort of multi-racial candidate that will populate American politics for generations to come. Hillary put up a good fight, but it’s hard to fight a future that has arrived in the fierce urgency of the present, a candidate on the glide whose flight path is now beginning to cover South Texas.














February 22nd, 2008 at 1:01 pm
Maybe you spoke to the wrong Mexican…My husband and me plus our 6 sons are voting for Hillary Clinton. And all our friends are doing the same.
February 22nd, 2008 at 2:18 pm
Another thing the pollsters might be missing in trying to call this race in Texas is the number of Republicans who will be voting in the Democratic primaries. Rumor has it that many of them prefer to see McCain challenged by Obama rather than Clinton, and their votes might make the difference in the primary, at least here in south Texas. As an over-50 Obama supporter I can almost forgive the Republicans for infiltrating our primary if they vote for my guy, but they won’t do us any favors come November.
February 22nd, 2008 at 3:03 pm
There were plenty of Ron Paul signs at the Obama rally today. So, maybe the Republicans will stay on their side of the aisle and vote for RP. But, I disagree on who they’d rather see McCain face. If Hillary wins the Dem nomination, she will motivate the far-right to come out and vote just so she doesn’t win. The right HATES Hillary. They don’t have the same intensity about Obama, and they’re certainly not energized by McCain. But, Hillary will get them out to the polls, and that will result in a closer general election race. But, I really think either Dem can and will beat McCain. It’ll just be a nastier and harder race if Hillary is the nominee.
One huge point that pollsters simply cannot account for is that Texas divides delegates using both a popular-vote primary and a caucus/precinct convention. A total of 168 delegates will be chosen based on what happens in early voting and on March 4. But, only 126 are chosen by the popular vote. The other 42 are chosen by a process that begins with the precinct cauces at 7 p.m. voting night. The Texas Democratic party rules mean that even if Clinton wins 60% of available Texas’ delegates in the vote, Obama could still win more delegates. (And, this doesn’t even include the controversial super-delegates (35) and 25 at-large party official delegates (total 228)).
Obama statistically does better in caucuses because they attract more activists than ordinary people. That will be true in the RGV. Think about it, I know all the middle-aged women and older men love Hillary more than anyone, but at 7 p.m. on a Tuesday they are going to be at home cooking dinner and spending time with their families. They’ll make a point to go vote for her, but I wouldn’t count on a large number of them showing up to caucus that night. They’ve got real life to take care of. On the other hand, young college kids and young professionals with no one to go home to, well we’re the demographic that will show up to caucus and statistics show we’re voting for Obama.
Yet another wrinkle to the complicated, yet exciting Primary ‘08 Election. I have to say, seeing that many young people excited about Obama at UTPA today warmed my heart to it’s very core.
Yes We Can! Si se puede!
If Hillary wins, I’ll still be excited. But, as Barack reminded us last night, all of these people that have gone out and voted for him (a majority of our fellow Americans at this point) are NOT delusional. He’s connecting with people and making them CARE enough to get informed (you should have heard the intelligent discussion I heard in line today about all the issues from Winter Texans to college kids to young moms). That means something–that level of engagement and involvement can only be good for our country.
February 23rd, 2008 at 11:01 pm
I’m a Republican voting for Obama, so that Texas can help bury Hillary once and for all.The good news is that once Obama is on the ticket, the “angry white males” vote will kick in and he will be toast in the presidential election. The white man will pull us out of the crap …again. I thought Hillary had a lock on this nomination, and perhaps the Presidency, and I never dreamed it would turn out like this. I couldn’t be happier. Even though McCain is a loser ( remember Bob Dole) he will end up beating Obama in a landslide. Fact is, very few people are going to throw the switch for Obama when the curtain closes on the voting booth and there is no watching.
February 29th, 2008 at 5:41 pm
Shame on you, Jose. The end justifying the means is an old saw the devious use to make themselves feel better, like losing ballot boxes in Florida during the last election.
April 10th, 2008 at 9:06 pm
Burt Reynolds
I think your mother would be proud.