The key swing states of Nevada, New Mexico and Virginia have been the subject of much attention from the Obama and McCain campaigns. New Mexico looks to be solid for Obama, but Nevada and Virginia both look to be razor thin as the two candidates battle it out.

One key group in these key three battleground states could be “new Americans,” i.e. new citizens who were recently naturalized immigrants. Over the last two years, there has been a surge in the number of legal residents who have chosen to become citizens, in part, motivated by the recent national debate over immigration reform.

The Immigration Policy Center has released some new information on the role these “new Americans” may have in determining which candidate is ultimately victorious in New Mexico, Nevada and Virginia. In Nevada, where Obama and McCain are running within a few percentage points of each other, the policy center reports that new Americans now account for nearly 15 percent of registered voters in that state. In 2004, George W. Bush edged John Kerry in Nevada by 2 percent.

In New Mexico, new Americans accounted for less than 1 percent of the registered voters in that state in 2004. In 2008, these Americans total 7 percent of registered voters in New Mexico. Bush edged Kerry by a few thousand votes in the 2004 presidential race. And in Virginia, which historically has hardly been considered a destination for immigrants, new Americans account for 6 percent of all registered voters. The Virginia vote in 2008 between Obama and McCain may come down to a victory margin of less than 100,000 votes.

It is refreshing and exciting to see so many new citizens stepping forward to vote in this year’s historic presidential campaign. Depending how they vote, these new Americans may play a key role in deciding which candidate becomes the next U.S. president.

- R.D. Cavazos