It was a reversal of fortunes in 2008, if you were rooting for Republican John McCain. Obama won Florida, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada, and a good part of those victories were built on the solid support the Democrat gained from Latinos. In the Southwest, Colorado’s Hispanic vote went 61-38 percent for Obama, and in Nevada and New Mexico the numbers were even better for the Democrat. Obama won Nevada and New Mexico by winning 60 and 69 percent of the Hispanic vote, respectively, in those two states.

The turnaround from 2004 was most evident in Florida, a state whose Hispanic vote went 57-42 percent for Obama after a 2004 election that saw Bush win the Latino vote by 56-44 percent. Nationwide, Obama earned 67 percent of the Hispanic vote to McCain’s 31 percent. Only four years ago, Bush, the Republican gained 44 percent of the Hispanic vote to Democrat Kerry’s 53 percent.

Here in the Rio Grande Valley, a national map in USA Today  showed our four-county region as one of the areas nationally where Obama’s support was 7 percent or better over what Kerry did in 2004.

And so, just two years after the Republicans and their conservative talk show allies unleashed harsh anti-immigration rhetoric in defeating a major reform bill, it was payback time, and it unfortunately fell on McCain to absorb the swing of Latinos back to Democrats in a major way.

“If the Republicans don’t make their peace with Hispanic voters, they’re not going to win presidential elections anymore. The math just isn’t there,” said Simon Rosenberg, head of the NDN, a Democratic group that studies Hispanic voters. Rosenberg made his comments to USA Today.

Danny Vargas, chairman of the Republican National Hispanic Assembly, told the same newspaper that the harsh tone of immigration bill opponents was problematic.

“Let’s have less on the emotional frenzy side of it and more on the solution side,” he said.

Early signs from the talk radio world that so dominates the GOP these days indicates more frenzy is on the way. One reason McCain lost, say many of the voices of talk radio, is because of his past support for immigration reform that included a path to legalization for some illegal immigrants. The economy may be falling to pieces, but we’ve got to make sure the Mexican immigrant working at a chicken processing plant in Iowa doesn’t get any sort of break. The talk radio world still has its priorities straight it would appear.

Next up in the switch from Republican red to Democrat blue may be Arizona and Texas, Rosenberg said.

“If these trend lines continue, Texas and Arizona will be in play in 2012,” Rosenberg told USA Today.

Texas going blue in the 2012 presidential election seems far fetched, but Dems are gaining numbers in the Texas Legislature. The state House of Representatives is now evenly divided between the two parties after two straight elections in which the Dems have gained seats. The state house will either consist of 76 Republicans and 74 Dems, or it will be an even 75-75 split, depending on the outcome of a Dallas-area legislative race that is still too close to call.

“I’m deeply concerned about the Republican Party, and I’m concerned about the Texas House,” said Rep. Joe Straus, R-San Antonio, in comments to the San Antonio Express-News.

He ought to be. Republicans better start getting Hispanics or else risk seeing that wide swath of American land between Louisiana and New Mexico go from red to blue.

- R.D. Cavazos

Post from: The Daily Chisme