Being that we live in a 24-hour news cycle where people have short memories, here’s a quick question.

Remember the H1N1 flu, the so-called swine flu?

In May, the spread of this flu was all the rage. Many Rio Grande Valley school districts shut down classes for days, even weeks, in some cases justified with confirmed H1N1 cases among the student population. Hand soap during the flu scare became what plywood is to approaching hurricanes as the local populace hurried to boost germ-fighting efforts as a way to ward off H1N1.

The flu story has largely waned - even with two Valley-related deaths attributed to H1N1 - as we move into the heart of summer’s heat. Don’t be fooled, though, for history shows such viruses re-emerge months later, and often far worse than the first wave of illnesses. A recent Washington Post story detailed the four major flu pandemics of recent eras - 1889-92, 1918-1920, 1957-60, and 1968-70.

Each of these pandemics, like H1N1, began with initial sporadic outbreaks, and were followed months later by waves of widespread illnesses far worse than first outbreak. Even with just a moderate pandemic of a new flu virus like H1N1, the Centers for Disease Control estimates that the death toll in the U.S. would be 89,000 to 207,000.

“If the virulence of this virus (H1N1), does not significantly increase - and right now there is no reason to think it will - something closer to the lower number looks probable,” the Post article states.

If  H1N1 does claim about 90,000 American lives in the next two years or so, it’s impossible to say where most of those deaths will occur, or if they will be scattered versus being concentrated in one area. Still, since the Valley was one of the entry points for H1N1, (from a Mexico source), concern here should be more than moderately high.

The biggest key may be how fast medical experts can develop a reliable vaccine to a fast-mutating virus such as H1N1. The Post story reports that a good flu vaccine only reaches 70 percent effectiveness, a great one is 90 percent effective. What mark will the H1N1 vaccine hit - and how fast can it be made available? The flu is due to start making a comeback this winter. What sort of vaccine will have been developed by then, and will there be enough of it?

All impossible questions to answer for now, so good to stock up on hand sanitizers now and ask local entitities - most especially school districts - to ramp up educational and information efforts about H1N1 when a new school year begins in August.  Just this month, the World Health Organization officially declared H1N1 a global pandemic, reporting a jump in cases and fatalities.

The 24-hour news cycle relentlessly moves on the next story, but the H1N1 story will be back, if history is any guide.

- R.D. Cavazos

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